BCS Championship Game Pick

Monday, January 9th

BCS Championship
New Orleans, Louisiana
(2) Alabama vs. (1) LSU
Line: Alabama by 1

Analysis – It was inevitable that both SEC teams, ranked 1-2 in the country, would meet in the national championship game. In the last meeting between the two teams, both couldn’t even get into the end zone. It wasn’t until third field goal by junior kicker Drew Alleman that gave LSU a 9-6 victory in overtime. Alabama will get their chance for revenge against LSU. But this time, the stakes are higher.

LSU proved all year that they were the best team in the country, going 13-0 during the regular season. The Tigers offense has averaged 38.5 points per game, and with the exception of the Alabama game and a near-hiccup against Mississippi State, all were not even close. LSU quarterbacks Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee split time and combined for nearly 2,000 passing yards and 20 TD’s while directing a ground attack that averaged 215.2 yards, 17th in the country.

Jefferson, who is expected to start the game, was suspended for four games for his role in a bar brawl in August. He ended up rushing for 248 yards, making him one of five Tigers with at least that many. LSU was led by Michael Ford (755) and Spencer Ware (700). Their defense is led by two all-American cornerbacks, Morris Claiborne and Heisman Trophy finalist, Tyrann Mathieu. In addition, LSU boasts a powerful pass rush that recorded 37 sacks, led by defensive ends Sam Montgomery (9.0) and Barkevious Mingo (8.0).

Alabama’s road to the BCS championship was similar path, clearly dominating teams without mercy. Their defense is ranked number one in the country giving up only 8.8 points per game. Alabama’s defense is led by senior linebacker Courtney Upshaw, who had 8 1/2 sacks and 17 tackles for loss, and fellow linebacker Dont’a Hightower, who recorded a team-leading 81 tackles - 9 1/2 for loss - and three sacks.

Of course, their offense is led by Heisman Trophy finalist and Doak Walker Award winner Trent Richardson. The junior was sixth in the country with 1,583 rushing yards and fifth with 20 TD’s on the ground. He also had three touchdown receptions and 327 yards receiving. In order to win, the Tide may need at least a solid performance from quarterback A.J. McCarron. The junior went 16 of 28 for 199 yards in the first meeting with LSU, getting sacked twice and intercepted once.

With a match-up so close like this, it’s going to come down to who can outfox the other, and even that’s going to be a chore. Both teams sport great coaching minds with LSU’s Les Miles and Alabama’s Nick Saban. One would think that with this game in New Orleans, just down the road from Baton Rouge, LSU would have the advantage. But there will surely be a contingent from Tuscaloosa making the 200 mile trip to the “Big Easy”.

Here are some more stats to ponder. Alabama leads 45-25-5 in a rivalry that dates back to 1895. The last five match-ups have been decided by nine or fewer points.

Smooth’s Pick – LSU (13-10)

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Results to Date

Against the Spread:
Head-to-Head: